Everyone in the fine wine world is happy to see the back of 2009. Though I see positive signs for 2010, I’m not breathing a sigh of relief -- yet. The good news is that people didn’t stop drinking, even if they traded down big-time in restaurants (pared-down expense accounts) and retail shops. But don’t expect the freewheeling spending of 2005 to 2008 to be back this year.

So what’s on my vinous radar in 2010?

Wine price shakedown

No surprise that during a recession price really matters and people hunt for values. I don’t see that ending anytime soon. 2010 will be the year of the discount, with retailers and online wine sites like www.winetilsoldout.com continuing to slash prices for plenty of well-known labels by 40% to 60%. Many of the best buys will be one-day offers via e-mail. Expect more price-dumping of 2006 Bordeaux and the light-and-definitely-not-great 2007s when bottles arrive later in the spring.

Wineries, importers, and distributors in financial trouble also will be dumping. Current examples: 2006 Havens Merlot at $6.99 (previously $20) at the Bay Area's K&L Wine Merchants. Havens Wine Cellars went bankrupt, and a liquidator was hired to sell off the inventory. California-based wine store Vinfolio, restructuring due to cash problems, is offering wines via frequent "flash sales."

Second -- and third -- labels

Rather than adjust prices downward, many top California wineries will shift some of their grapes into new second or third labels that sell at lower price points. Wines in the $40 and up category (many of them overpriced and overhyped to begin with) suffered in 2009. That probably will continue in 2010 -- at least until restaurants can get rid of most of the stock they already have. As one wine broker told me, "It’s easier for me to sell a $1,000 bottle of wine than ones between $50 to $100."  Many Napa producers of high-end cabernets admit that sales of their most expensive bottles to wine shops and restaurants were down 30% and more.

Sustainability with clout

This year "sustainable" may finally turn out to be more than a vague feel-good term that can be affixed to any product. A few weeks ago, the California Winegrowing Alliance announced a new certification program that provides third-party certification for wineries that adhere to a host of sustainable wine-growing practices. This is surely a step in the right direction, even if wine lovers still don’t understand the difference between organic and biodynamic.

But will there be an educational push to help consumers understand the new "sustainable?" Somehow, I doubt it.

Beyond the standard bottle

To me, the most interesting packaging story will be the 50-mililiter tasting bottle. Seghesio Family Vineyards has just launched a six single-vineyard tasting kit so you can tdecide which one you like best before buying. Other wineries will follow suit.

I see eco-friendly bag-in-box wines -- especially those containing higher quality juice -- continuing to draw new converts. More imaginative, sometimes silly, designs will emerge, like the soon-to-be-launched Elk Creek Vineyards' sports-inspired Kentucky Blue Box wines with boxes that double as game surfaces for ping pong and football.  And the innovative wine pouch will find more buyers, especially among young drinkers.

Use of the lightweight lower-carbon-footprint plastic PET bottle may spread this year, unless it turns out the plastic migrates into the wine and presents a health hazard. The first California wine in a PET bottle, Fog Mountain Merlot from Boisset Family Estates, appeared in 2009. Lighter glass bottles are also debuting, a better choice, in my opinion. The world’s lightest glass bottle -- 300 grams versus 420 grams for a standard bottle -- hit shelves in the UK supermarket chain Tesco in January.

What will be hot

In 2009, wine lovers embraced table wines from Portugal (up 11.3 percent), malbec from Argentina (up 54 percent from mid-2008 to 2009) and dropped French Champagne for Italian Prosecco (up 11 percent).  All offer good value, and should remain hot through 2010 -- if prices don’t go up.

But I have more questions than answers on this one, such as:  Is this the year the rose bubble will pop? Can natural wine go mainstream?

Ingredient labeling

A pioneer in the U.S., Randall Grahm started listing ingredients on his Bonny Doon Vineyard labels with the 2007 vintage that debuted in 2008. Will the European Union mandate this year that French, Spanish, and Italian producers follow suit? The European parliament is slated to vote in May on new legislation regarding labeling on food products, which will include wine. Right now, wine is exempt from because of a "viticulture exception" in the 2000 guidelines. Non-producing EU members like Belgium favor the measure, while wine producers like France want to wait five years.

Wine thirsty Asia

This rapidly expanding market is set to suck up more of the world’s wine this year. VinExpo just released figures that, in contrast to European countries, Asia’s wine consumption will grow 25% over the next five years. Asia already is driving prices for top wines in the auction market. The Chinese love affair with Chateau Lafite pumped up prices last year of the country’s favorite first-growth and second wine Carraudes de Lafite even as the cost of other wines fell worldwide. Hong Kong is on its way to becoming the world’s top wine auction market; it surpassed London in sales last year.

2010 will be a challenging year, especially for those who don’t want to see how much the world is changing when it comes to wine.

Clarification: The sell-off of Havens Wine Cellars wines resulted from the failure of Billington Imports, not a bankruptcy.  Michael Havens and partners sold the brand to Billington in 2006; Michael departed in 2008.  In May 2009, Billington defaulted to PNC Bank, who elected in September to liquidate all Billington assets (this included other California brands, Chasseur and a few house brands, plus the South American brands Alamos, Catena, and Cousiño Macul).  The winery property, including vineyards, was sold separately to a REIT, which leased it to Billington and then evicted them for default.

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